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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict - 4/23/2011

Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict
April 23, 2011
Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy


One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it's not reassuring.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

A comment to the original article includes a link to a fascinating graph showing 1962-1982 (20 yrs) Texas oil production (bottom and right axes) compared with 1995-2015 (20 yrs) Saudi Arabia oil production (top and left axes):



The inescapable conclusion is that Saudi Arabia passed its peak oil production in 2005, and can no longer function as swing oil producer, compensating for production shortfalls of other producers.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Iraq, Iran and the Next Move - April 26, 2011

Iraq, Iran and the Next Move
By George Friedman
April 26, 2011


The United States told the Iraqi government last week that if it wants U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond the deadline of Dec. 31, 2011, as stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad, it would have to inform the United States quickly. Unless a new agreement is reached soon, the United States will be unable to remain. The implication in the U.S. position is that a complex planning process must be initiated to leave troops there and delays will not allow that process to take place.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

My comments...
There are violent uprisings all across the Middle East, As the U.S. disengages from Iraq, Iran emerges as the major political and military power. Saudi Arabia, the only counter to Iran, squandered 40 years of wealth and opportunity and remains stuck in the Middle Ages. Turns out it was never about Iraqi WMD or "liberty"; it was always about OIL.

When we invaded Iraq in 2003 we destroyed the only regional power limiting Iran, as well as the buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Good work, George Bush !!! Now, if we bail on Iraq and don't prop up Saudi Arabia we can expect Iran to become the new Persian Gulf superpower. Imagine how much a barrel of oil will cost then !!!

Saturday, April 23, 2011

The Great Game - The War For Caspian Oil And Gas

The Great Game -
The War For Caspian Oil And Gas
By Christopher Bollyn
American Free Press.net


President Bush's "crusade against the Taliban of Afghanistan has more to do with control of the immense oil and gas resources of the Caspian Basin than it does with "rooting out terrorism.

Once again an American president from the Bush family is leading Americans down an oil-rich Middle Eastern warpath against "enemies of freedom and democracy.

President George W. Bush, whose family is well connected to oil and energy companies, has called for an international crusade against Islamic terrorists, who he says hate Americans simply because we are "the brightest beacon of freedom.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

UK Memos Reveal Iraq Invasion, Oil Industry Ties



UK Memos Reveal Iraq Invasion, Oil Industry Ties
By Rocky Vega
04/22/11 Stockholm, Sweden


Open acknowledgment has yet to surface quite the same way in the US, but the UK has now readily exposed — in over 1,000 Freedom of Information documents — that, at a minimum, five meetings between UK public officials and BP and Shell representatives took place in 2002. In a series of post-invasion contracts, 50 percent of Iraq’s 120 billion barrels of oil reserves were snapped up by industry participants including China National Petroleum Company and BP.

According to The Independent:

“Five months before the March 2003 invasion, Baroness Symons, then the Trade Minister, told BP that the Government believed British energy firms should be given a share of Iraq’s enormous oil and gas reserves as a reward for Tony Blair’s military commitment to US plans for regime change. The papers show that Lady Symons agreed to lobby the Bush administration on BP’s behalf because the oil giant feared it was being ‘locked out’ of deals that Washington was quietly striking with US, French and Russian governments and their energy firms.

“Minutes of a meeting with BP, Shell and BG (formerly British Gas) on 31 October 2002 read: ‘Baroness Symons agreed that it would be difficult to justify British companies losing out in Iraq in that way if the UK had itself been a conspicuous supporter of the US government throughout the crisis.’ The minister then promised to ‘report back to the companies before Christmas’ on her lobbying efforts. The Foreign Office invited BP in on 6 November 2002 to talk about opportunities in Iraq ‘post regime change’. Its minutes state: ‘Iraq is the big oil prospect. BP is desperate to get in there and anxious that political deals should not deny them the opportunity.’

“After another meeting, this one in October 2002, the Foreign Office’s Middle East director at the time, Edward Chaplin, noted: ‘Shell and BP could not afford not to have a stake in [Iraq] for the sake of their long-term future… We were determined to get a fair slice of the action for UK companies in a post-Saddam Iraq.’ Whereas BP was insisting in public that it had ‘no strategic interest’ in Iraq, in private it told the Foreign Office that Iraq was ‘more important than anything we’ve seen for a long time’.”

Despite indications to the contrary throughout the build up to the Iraq war, the UK was clearly making a concerted effort “to get a fair slice of the action for UK companies in a post-Saddam Iraq.” That the reality of the situation differs so fully from the party line comes as no surprise, but the indifference for the truth reminds us of another not-so-convincing set of press briefings…

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

No shortage of crude oil in market 4/18/2011

OPEC: No shortage of crude oil in market
OPEC concerned about prices and impact on global economy, but market oversupplied
Tarek El-Tablawy, AP Business Writer, On Monday April 18, 2011, 10:16 am EDT


CAIRO (AP) -- OPEC is worried about the recent surge in global oil prices and its potential impact on the world economy, but the market is oversupplied, several oil officials said Monday suggesting the bloc will not raise its output at its June meeting.

Oil prices have spiked sharply over the past few months, surging on concerns that the unrest ravaging the Arab world, including Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member Libya, will affect output from a group that supplies about 35 percent of the world's crude. The gains have stoked fears that they could squeeze the global economy.

OPEC acknowledged those concerns, but said the increases that briefly pushed oil futures as high as $127 per barrel were driven mainly by speculation.

READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE HERE

My comment...
Color me skeptical. I believe the reasons Saudi Arabia won't increase output are: (1) their reserves are overstated by 40%; (2) they need high prices to pay for the $100B they are handing their populace to quell unrest; (3) they are angry with the U.S. for not supporting Mubarek; (4) oil in the ground is worth more than than dollars in the hand.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Shifting Sands: Saudi Arabia's Oil Moves East to China

Shifting Sands: Saudi Arabia's Oil Moves East to China
Published April 05, 2011 in Arabic Knowledge@Wharton


The pivotal year was 2009, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). It was then that China consumed more energy than any other country in the world, even the U.S., prompting an expert at the IEA expert to proclaim "the start of a new age in the history of energy."

As OPEC sleeps, oil nears the tipping point

As OPEC sleeps, oil nears the tipping point
A combination of foreign unrest, Arab recalcitrance
and a plunging dollar is pushing energy prices into the danger zone.
By Anthony Mirhaydari on Mon, Apr 11, 2011


Last week, crude oil launched like an artillery rocket over the $113 handle to close at a high of $113.48. Aside from Moammar Gadhafi's attacks on Libya's oilfields, there are also concerns about upcoming elections in Nigeria -- another important oil exporter in Africa.

My comment...
Elections in Nigeria (Apr. 16th & 23rd) may disrupt oil production (as they did in 2003 & 2007) and prove to be the flash point that sends oil over $125 a barrel, a level which Deutsche Bank economists believe will tip us back into recession.

Can the Saudis save the economy?

Can the Saudis save the economy?
By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money
3/23/2011


We're depending on the House of Saud to replace lost Libyan oil. We also need the Saudis to quiet political unrest in the Persian Gulf. The future of the economy depends on it.