Friday, July 29, 2011
WTI Crude Oil Price as of July 29, 2011
This graph (click on it for a larger image) shows the monthly average prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, from January, 2006 through July, 2011.
The 2010 line is in BLACK, and the 2011 line is in RED. Earlier years are in other colors. Monthly values are shown for 2010 and 2011. Since March, 2011, WTI prices have been running about 30% higher than in 2010. While this is crude oil, it translates pretty directly into gasoline prices, which is why gas prices have also been running about 30% above 2010, or about $1 a gallon higher for regular gasoline.
Sadly, energy and food prices are excluded from the government's calculation of CORE inflation.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict - 4/23/2011
Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict
April 23, 2011
Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it's not reassuring.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
A comment to the original article includes a link to a fascinating graph showing 1962-1982 (20 yrs) Texas oil production (bottom and right axes) compared with 1995-2015 (20 yrs) Saudi Arabia oil production (top and left axes):
The inescapable conclusion is that Saudi Arabia passed its peak oil production in 2005, and can no longer function as swing oil producer, compensating for production shortfalls of other producers.
April 23, 2011
Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it's not reassuring.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
A comment to the original article includes a link to a fascinating graph showing 1962-1982 (20 yrs) Texas oil production (bottom and right axes) compared with 1995-2015 (20 yrs) Saudi Arabia oil production (top and left axes):
The inescapable conclusion is that Saudi Arabia passed its peak oil production in 2005, and can no longer function as swing oil producer, compensating for production shortfalls of other producers.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Iraq, Iran and the Next Move - April 26, 2011
Iraq, Iran and the Next Move
By George Friedman
April 26, 2011
The United States told the Iraqi government last week that if it wants U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond the deadline of Dec. 31, 2011, as stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad, it would have to inform the United States quickly. Unless a new agreement is reached soon, the United States will be unable to remain. The implication in the U.S. position is that a complex planning process must be initiated to leave troops there and delays will not allow that process to take place.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
My comments...
There are violent uprisings all across the Middle East, As the U.S. disengages from Iraq, Iran emerges as the major political and military power. Saudi Arabia, the only counter to Iran, squandered 40 years of wealth and opportunity and remains stuck in the Middle Ages. Turns out it was never about Iraqi WMD or "liberty"; it was always about OIL.
When we invaded Iraq in 2003 we destroyed the only regional power limiting Iran, as well as the buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Good work, George Bush !!! Now, if we bail on Iraq and don't prop up Saudi Arabia we can expect Iran to become the new Persian Gulf superpower. Imagine how much a barrel of oil will cost then !!!
By George Friedman
April 26, 2011
The United States told the Iraqi government last week that if it wants U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond the deadline of Dec. 31, 2011, as stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad, it would have to inform the United States quickly. Unless a new agreement is reached soon, the United States will be unable to remain. The implication in the U.S. position is that a complex planning process must be initiated to leave troops there and delays will not allow that process to take place.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
My comments...
There are violent uprisings all across the Middle East, As the U.S. disengages from Iraq, Iran emerges as the major political and military power. Saudi Arabia, the only counter to Iran, squandered 40 years of wealth and opportunity and remains stuck in the Middle Ages. Turns out it was never about Iraqi WMD or "liberty"; it was always about OIL.
When we invaded Iraq in 2003 we destroyed the only regional power limiting Iran, as well as the buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Good work, George Bush !!! Now, if we bail on Iraq and don't prop up Saudi Arabia we can expect Iran to become the new Persian Gulf superpower. Imagine how much a barrel of oil will cost then !!!
Saturday, April 23, 2011
The Great Game - The War For Caspian Oil And Gas
The Great Game -
The War For Caspian Oil And Gas
By Christopher Bollyn
American Free Press.net
President Bush's "crusade against the Taliban of Afghanistan has more to do with control of the immense oil and gas resources of the Caspian Basin than it does with "rooting out terrorism.
Once again an American president from the Bush family is leading Americans down an oil-rich Middle Eastern warpath against "enemies of freedom and democracy.
President George W. Bush, whose family is well connected to oil and energy companies, has called for an international crusade against Islamic terrorists, who he says hate Americans simply because we are "the brightest beacon of freedom.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
The War For Caspian Oil And Gas
By Christopher Bollyn
American Free Press.net
President Bush's "crusade against the Taliban of Afghanistan has more to do with control of the immense oil and gas resources of the Caspian Basin than it does with "rooting out terrorism.
Once again an American president from the Bush family is leading Americans down an oil-rich Middle Eastern warpath against "enemies of freedom and democracy.
President George W. Bush, whose family is well connected to oil and energy companies, has called for an international crusade against Islamic terrorists, who he says hate Americans simply because we are "the brightest beacon of freedom.
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
UK Memos Reveal Iraq Invasion, Oil Industry Ties
UK Memos Reveal Iraq Invasion, Oil Industry Ties
By Rocky Vega
04/22/11 Stockholm, Sweden
Open acknowledgment has yet to surface quite the same way in the US, but the UK has now readily exposed — in over 1,000 Freedom of Information documents — that, at a minimum, five meetings between UK public officials and BP and Shell representatives took place in 2002. In a series of post-invasion contracts, 50 percent of Iraq’s 120 billion barrels of oil reserves were snapped up by industry participants including China National Petroleum Company and BP.
According to The Independent:
“Five months before the March 2003 invasion, Baroness Symons, then the Trade Minister, told BP that the Government believed British energy firms should be given a share of Iraq’s enormous oil and gas reserves as a reward for Tony Blair’s military commitment to US plans for regime change. The papers show that Lady Symons agreed to lobby the Bush administration on BP’s behalf because the oil giant feared it was being ‘locked out’ of deals that Washington was quietly striking with US, French and Russian governments and their energy firms.
“Minutes of a meeting with BP, Shell and BG (formerly British Gas) on 31 October 2002 read: ‘Baroness Symons agreed that it would be difficult to justify British companies losing out in Iraq in that way if the UK had itself been a conspicuous supporter of the US government throughout the crisis.’ The minister then promised to ‘report back to the companies before Christmas’ on her lobbying efforts. The Foreign Office invited BP in on 6 November 2002 to talk about opportunities in Iraq ‘post regime change’. Its minutes state: ‘Iraq is the big oil prospect. BP is desperate to get in there and anxious that political deals should not deny them the opportunity.’
“After another meeting, this one in October 2002, the Foreign Office’s Middle East director at the time, Edward Chaplin, noted: ‘Shell and BP could not afford not to have a stake in [Iraq] for the sake of their long-term future… We were determined to get a fair slice of the action for UK companies in a post-Saddam Iraq.’ Whereas BP was insisting in public that it had ‘no strategic interest’ in Iraq, in private it told the Foreign Office that Iraq was ‘more important than anything we’ve seen for a long time’.”
Despite indications to the contrary throughout the build up to the Iraq war, the UK was clearly making a concerted effort “to get a fair slice of the action for UK companies in a post-Saddam Iraq.” That the reality of the situation differs so fully from the party line comes as no surprise, but the indifference for the truth reminds us of another not-so-convincing set of press briefings…
READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
No shortage of crude oil in market 4/18/2011
OPEC: No shortage of crude oil in market
OPEC concerned about prices and impact on global economy, but market oversupplied
Tarek El-Tablawy, AP Business Writer, On Monday April 18, 2011, 10:16 am EDT
CAIRO (AP) -- OPEC is worried about the recent surge in global oil prices and its potential impact on the world economy, but the market is oversupplied, several oil officials said Monday suggesting the bloc will not raise its output at its June meeting.
Oil prices have spiked sharply over the past few months, surging on concerns that the unrest ravaging the Arab world, including Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member Libya, will affect output from a group that supplies about 35 percent of the world's crude. The gains have stoked fears that they could squeeze the global economy.
OPEC acknowledged those concerns, but said the increases that briefly pushed oil futures as high as $127 per barrel were driven mainly by speculation.
READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE HERE
My comment...
Color me skeptical. I believe the reasons Saudi Arabia won't increase output are: (1) their reserves are overstated by 40%; (2) they need high prices to pay for the $100B they are handing their populace to quell unrest; (3) they are angry with the U.S. for not supporting Mubarek; (4) oil in the ground is worth more than than dollars in the hand.
OPEC concerned about prices and impact on global economy, but market oversupplied
Tarek El-Tablawy, AP Business Writer, On Monday April 18, 2011, 10:16 am EDT
CAIRO (AP) -- OPEC is worried about the recent surge in global oil prices and its potential impact on the world economy, but the market is oversupplied, several oil officials said Monday suggesting the bloc will not raise its output at its June meeting.
Oil prices have spiked sharply over the past few months, surging on concerns that the unrest ravaging the Arab world, including Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member Libya, will affect output from a group that supplies about 35 percent of the world's crude. The gains have stoked fears that they could squeeze the global economy.
OPEC acknowledged those concerns, but said the increases that briefly pushed oil futures as high as $127 per barrel were driven mainly by speculation.
READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE HERE
My comment...
Color me skeptical. I believe the reasons Saudi Arabia won't increase output are: (1) their reserves are overstated by 40%; (2) they need high prices to pay for the $100B they are handing their populace to quell unrest; (3) they are angry with the U.S. for not supporting Mubarek; (4) oil in the ground is worth more than than dollars in the hand.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices
WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices
US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT
US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT
Monday, April 11, 2011
Shifting Sands: Saudi Arabia's Oil Moves East to China
Shifting Sands: Saudi Arabia's Oil Moves East to China
Published April 05, 2011 in Arabic Knowledge@Wharton
The pivotal year was 2009, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). It was then that China consumed more energy than any other country in the world, even the U.S., prompting an expert at the IEA expert to proclaim "the start of a new age in the history of energy."
Published April 05, 2011 in Arabic Knowledge@Wharton
The pivotal year was 2009, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). It was then that China consumed more energy than any other country in the world, even the U.S., prompting an expert at the IEA expert to proclaim "the start of a new age in the history of energy."
As OPEC sleeps, oil nears the tipping point
As OPEC sleeps, oil nears the tipping point
A combination of foreign unrest, Arab recalcitrance
and a plunging dollar is pushing energy prices into the danger zone.
By Anthony Mirhaydari on Mon, Apr 11, 2011
Last week, crude oil launched like an artillery rocket over the $113 handle to close at a high of $113.48. Aside from Moammar Gadhafi's attacks on Libya's oilfields, there are also concerns about upcoming elections in Nigeria -- another important oil exporter in Africa.
My comment...
Elections in Nigeria (Apr. 16th & 23rd) may disrupt oil production (as they did in 2003 & 2007) and prove to be the flash point that sends oil over $125 a barrel, a level which Deutsche Bank economists believe will tip us back into recession.
A combination of foreign unrest, Arab recalcitrance
and a plunging dollar is pushing energy prices into the danger zone.
By Anthony Mirhaydari on Mon, Apr 11, 2011
Last week, crude oil launched like an artillery rocket over the $113 handle to close at a high of $113.48. Aside from Moammar Gadhafi's attacks on Libya's oilfields, there are also concerns about upcoming elections in Nigeria -- another important oil exporter in Africa.
My comment...
Elections in Nigeria (Apr. 16th & 23rd) may disrupt oil production (as they did in 2003 & 2007) and prove to be the flash point that sends oil over $125 a barrel, a level which Deutsche Bank economists believe will tip us back into recession.
Can the Saudis save the economy?
Can the Saudis save the economy?
By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money
3/23/2011
We're depending on the House of Saud to replace lost Libyan oil. We also need the Saudis to quiet political unrest in the Persian Gulf. The future of the economy depends on it.
By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money
3/23/2011
We're depending on the House of Saud to replace lost Libyan oil. We also need the Saudis to quiet political unrest in the Persian Gulf. The future of the economy depends on it.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Peak Oil (2010 Scenario)
World Annual Oil Production (1900-2009) and Peak Oil (2010 Scenario)
The oldest continuously operated oil well, called McClintock #1, is located south of Titusville, Pennsylvania and started operations in 1861. Its initial output was about 50 barrels of oil per day and after more than 145 years of operation the well produces about 1 barrel per day. This historical example indicates a process where an initially abundant resource slowly gets depleted. Although the well is likely to produce oil for a long time, it is beyond its peak production level.
Click the link above to read the entire article.
The oldest continuously operated oil well, called McClintock #1, is located south of Titusville, Pennsylvania and started operations in 1861. Its initial output was about 50 barrels of oil per day and after more than 145 years of operation the well produces about 1 barrel per day. This historical example indicates a process where an initially abundant resource slowly gets depleted. Although the well is likely to produce oil for a long time, it is beyond its peak production level.
Click the link above to read the entire article.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Peak Oil - The Hubbert Curve and the math
The Hubbert Curve
The Hubbert Curve is not a chart of an individual field's production but rather a mathematical statistic formed from total output of many fields. This page looks at the basic principles behind it.
Hubbert's Peak Mathematics
by Luís de Sousa
M. King Hubbert's early work was founded on somewhat complex differential equations. That earned him some criticism; the method was as impenetrable as a monolith, which only those with profound mathematical knowledge could understand.
The Hubbert Curve is not a chart of an individual field's production but rather a mathematical statistic formed from total output of many fields. This page looks at the basic principles behind it.
Hubbert's Peak Mathematics
by Luís de Sousa
M. King Hubbert's early work was founded on somewhat complex differential equations. That earned him some criticism; the method was as impenetrable as a monolith, which only those with profound mathematical knowledge could understand.
The New Great Game - DER SPIEGEL 10/08/2010
The New Great Game
DER SPIEGEL Central Asia Special
10/08/2010
In a special series, DER SPIEGEL explores Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries, once the center of the Great Game, a bitter struggle over natural resources and strategic bases between the British and Russian colonial powers, are seeing history repeat itself.
DER SPIEGEL Central Asia Special
10/08/2010
In a special series, DER SPIEGEL explores Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries, once the center of the Great Game, a bitter struggle over natural resources and strategic bases between the British and Russian colonial powers, are seeing history repeat itself.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Monday, January 3, 2011
Oil Reserves by Country as of Nov 20, 2010
Oil Reserves by Country
Top Twenty Countries
J.C. Grant, Yahoo! Contributor Network
Nov 20, 2010
This article ranks oil reserves by country according to estimates by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
This is a table of the data presented in the article.
Oil Reserves by Country
This pie chart shows the national daily consumption, in barrels, of the twenty largest producing countries.
This pie chart shows the percent of total global oil reserves controlled by each of the twenty most important producing countries.
Top Twenty Countries
J.C. Grant, Yahoo! Contributor Network
Nov 20, 2010
This article ranks oil reserves by country according to estimates by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
This is a table of the data presented in the article.
Oil Reserves by Country
This pie chart shows the national daily consumption, in barrels, of the twenty largest producing countries.
This pie chart shows the percent of total global oil reserves controlled by each of the twenty most important producing countries.
The New Great Game Reading List 2006-2010
This is my reading list on the subject. The letter in parentheses is my "grade" for the book. Two of the books are coded [DNF] meaning that I didn't finish reading them.
America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and Its Enemies [Paperback] by George Friedman c2005 (A+)
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak [Paperback] by Kenneth S. Deffeyes c2006 (A+)
Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum [Paperback] by Michael T. Klare c2005 (B)
Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization [Paperback] by John Robb and James Fallows c2008 (A+)
The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time [Paperback] by Antonia Juhasz c2007 (A+)
Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era [Hardcover] by Jeremy Leggett c2001 (A+)
The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel [Paperback] by Stephen Leeb and Glen Strathy c2007 (B)
The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe [Hardcover] by Jeremy Leggett c2005 (A+)
The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World [Paperback] by Paul Roberts c2005 (A)
Heat: How to Stop the Planet From Burning [Paperback] by George Monbiot, c2009 (A)
House of Bush, House of Saud: The Secret Relationship Between the World's Two Most Powerful Dynasties [Paperback] by Craig Unger c2004 (A+)
The Hydrogen World View [Paperback] by Dr. Roger E. Billings c2000 (B)
The Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate [Paperback] by Joseph J. Romm c2005 (B+)
Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternatives [Hardcover] by Edwin Black c2008 (C) [DNF]
It's the Crude, Dude: Greed, Gas, War, and the American Way [Hardcover] by Linda Mcquaig c2006 (A+)
Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction [Paperback] by Terry Tamminen c2008 (A+)
The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia [Paperback] by Lutz Kleveman c2004 (A)
The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis [Paperback] by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb c2005 (B)
Opportunity Investing: How To Profit When Stocks Advance, Stocks Decline, Inflation Runs Rampant, Prices Fall, Oil Prices Hit the Roof, ... and Every Time in Between [Hardcover] by Gerald Appel c2006 (B)
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century--On Earth and Beyond [Hardcover] by Martin J. Rees c2003 (A)
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies [Paperback] by Richard Heinberg c2005 (A+)
Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar [Paperback] by William R. Clark c2005 (A+)
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World [Paperback] by Richard Heinberg c2004 (B+)
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power [Paperback] Daniel Yergin c2008 [DNF]
A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World [Paperback] by Peter Tertzakian c2007 (A)
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy [Paperback] by Matthew R. Simmons c2006 (A)
America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and Its Enemies [Paperback] by George Friedman c2005 (A+)
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak [Paperback] by Kenneth S. Deffeyes c2006 (A+)
Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum [Paperback] by Michael T. Klare c2005 (B)
Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization [Paperback] by John Robb and James Fallows c2008 (A+)
The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time [Paperback] by Antonia Juhasz c2007 (A+)
Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era [Hardcover] by Jeremy Leggett c2001 (A+)
The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel [Paperback] by Stephen Leeb and Glen Strathy c2007 (B)
The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe [Hardcover] by Jeremy Leggett c2005 (A+)
The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World [Paperback] by Paul Roberts c2005 (A)
Heat: How to Stop the Planet From Burning [Paperback] by George Monbiot, c2009 (A)
House of Bush, House of Saud: The Secret Relationship Between the World's Two Most Powerful Dynasties [Paperback] by Craig Unger c2004 (A+)
The Hydrogen World View [Paperback] by Dr. Roger E. Billings c2000 (B)
The Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate [Paperback] by Joseph J. Romm c2005 (B+)
Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternatives [Hardcover] by Edwin Black c2008 (C) [DNF]
It's the Crude, Dude: Greed, Gas, War, and the American Way [Hardcover] by Linda Mcquaig c2006 (A+)
Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction [Paperback] by Terry Tamminen c2008 (A+)
The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia [Paperback] by Lutz Kleveman c2004 (A)
The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis [Paperback] by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb c2005 (B)
Opportunity Investing: How To Profit When Stocks Advance, Stocks Decline, Inflation Runs Rampant, Prices Fall, Oil Prices Hit the Roof, ... and Every Time in Between [Hardcover] by Gerald Appel c2006 (B)
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century--On Earth and Beyond [Hardcover] by Martin J. Rees c2003 (A)
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies [Paperback] by Richard Heinberg c2005 (A+)
Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar [Paperback] by William R. Clark c2005 (A+)
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World [Paperback] by Richard Heinberg c2004 (B+)
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power [Paperback] Daniel Yergin c2008 [DNF]
A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World [Paperback] by Peter Tertzakian c2007 (A)
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy [Paperback] by Matthew R. Simmons c2006 (A)
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